Macro Reaction

FOMC Bitcoin Price Impact: BTC Reaction to Every Fed Decision

FOMC Bitcoin price impact: BTC and ETH moves after every Fed rate decision since 2017, at +1h, +4h, +1d and +7d, plus how often the first move reversed.

Next release: Wed 28 Oct 2026 18:00 UK

Not financial advice. Historical data only. Past reactions do not predict future moves. Figures are computed automatically from public data and may contain errors. Crypto and leveraged trading carry a high risk of loss.
Releases tracked
80
2017-02-01 → 2026-09-16
BTC avg first-hour move
0.85%
2.0× a typical hour
First-hour move reversed by +4h
22%
BTC, n=77 · ETH 22%
BTC higher after 1 day
49%
median -0.05%

Summary

Asset / horizonMedian move% upAvg absolute moven
Bitcoin (BTC) +1h+0.02%51%0.85%77
Bitcoin (BTC) +4h+0.18%57%1.58%77
Bitcoin (BTC) +1d-0.05%49%3.30%77
Bitcoin (BTC) +7d+0.80%53%8.03%77
Ethereum (ETH) +1h+0.21%60%1.18%72
Ethereum (ETH) +4h+0.08%51%1.96%72
Ethereum (ETH) +1d-0.43%49%4.13%72
Ethereum (ETH) +7d-0.17%50%10.58%72
GBP/USD next noon NY fix-0.04%49%0.65%77
GBP/USD +7d-0.62%32%1.11%77

Summary stats use scheduled releases only (3 unscheduled emergency statements are listed in the table but excluded).

Every past release

BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.

Release (UK time)BTC +1hBTC +4hReversed?BTC +1dBTC +7dETH +1hETH +4hGBP/USD next noon NY fix
Wed 16 Sep 2026 19:00-0.17%+0.30%yes+1.21%+11.39%+0.27%+0.53%-0.77%
Wed 29 Jul 2026 19:00+0.37%-0.62%yes+0.96%+0.80%+0.28%-0.88%+1.32%
Wed 17 Jun 2026 19:00-0.89%-2.83%no-5.35%-10.21%-1.05%-2.82%-1.28%
Wed 29 Apr 2026 19:00-0.87%-0.32%no+0.11%+6.97%-1.91%-1.32%+0.64%
Wed 18 Mar 2026 18:00-0.71%-0.50%no-2.48%-1.21%-1.05%-0.07%+0.29%
Wed 28 Jan 2026 19:00-0.16%-0.19%no-6.81%-18.07%+0.06%+0.11%+0.06%
Wed 10 Dec 2025 19:00+0.50%+0.02%no-1.97%-7.27%+0.28%-1.02%+0.66%
Wed 29 Oct 2025 18:00-0.94%-0.24%no-3.94%-7.13%-2.38%-1.44%-0.72%
Wed 17 Sep 2025 19:00-0.38%+0.33%yes+1.68%-1.63%+0.27%+1.92%-0.80%
Wed 30 Jul 2025 19:00-1.10%-0.41%no-0.05%-1.91%-1.84%-1.14%-0.41%
Wed 18 Jun 2025 19:00-0.75%+0.72%yes+0.18%+2.98%-0.79%+1.21%-0.04%
Wed 07 May 2025 19:00+0.28%+0.88%no+4.91%+7.22%+0.52%+0.33%-0.43%
Wed 19 Mar 2025 18:00+1.81%+1.85%no-0.11%+2.91%+1.15%+0.77%+0.03%
Wed 29 Jan 2025 19:00+0.72%+0.64%no+2.71%-5.95%+0.38%+0.50%+0.14%
Wed 18 Dec 2024 19:00-1.88%-3.43%no-5.65%-5.80%-3.38%-5.67%-1.31%
Thu 07 Nov 2024 19:00-0.06%-0.97%no+0.29%+16.31%+0.25%+0.09%-0.62%
Wed 18 Sep 2024 19:00+1.00%+0.31%no+6.17%+5.24%+1.21%+1.02%+0.61%
Wed 31 Jul 2024 19:00-0.22%-2.54%no-5.25%-16.61%+0.06%-2.35%-0.53%
Wed 12 Jun 2024 19:00-1.39%-1.84%no-4.19%-6.79%-1.42%-1.61%-0.62%
Wed 01 May 2024 19:00+2.65%+0.81%no+3.24%+9.12%+2.31%+1.50%+0.15%
Wed 20 Mar 2024 18:00+2.06%+5.70%no+2.48%+7.10%+2.89%+6.09%-0.34%
Wed 31 Jan 2024 19:00-0.35%-2.02%no-1.52%+0.30%-0.57%-2.24%-0.05%
Wed 13 Dec 2023 19:00+1.45%+2.03%no+1.74%+4.81%+1.65%+2.11%+1.92%
Wed 01 Nov 2023 18:00+0.25%+2.65%no+0.77%+2.32%+0.66%+2.13%+0.40%
Wed 20 Sep 2023 19:00-0.11%-0.32%no-2.05%-3.72%+0.15%-0.21%-0.73%
Wed 26 Jul 2023 19:00+0.42%+0.73%no-0.16%-0.44%+0.73%+0.71%-0.46%
Wed 14 Jun 2023 19:00-0.40%-3.43%no-3.42%+15.64%-0.47%-5.01%+0.52%
Wed 03 May 2023 19:00-0.42%+1.32%yes+0.98%-3.67%+0.72%+0.88%+0.26%
Wed 22 Mar 2023 18:00-1.77%-5.05%no-0.84%-1.19%-0.98%-3.83%+0.74%
Wed 01 Feb 2023 19:00+1.40%+2.85%no+4.32%-0.77%+2.43%+3.64%-0.39%
Wed 14 Dec 2022 19:00-2.35%-2.10%no-4.52%-7.84%-1.95%-1.54%-1.63%
Wed 02 Nov 2022 18:00+0.12%-1.37%yes-1.01%-17.15%+0.25%-2.89%-2.48%
Wed 21 Sep 2022 19:00-0.94%-6.87%no-3.76%-2.40%-1.18%-10.12%-0.54%
Wed 27 Jul 2022 19:00+4.29%+4.88%no+11.04%+8.47%+5.50%+7.16%+0.82%
Wed 15 Jun 2022 19:00+2.04%+5.23%no-0.20%-3.93%+5.27%+10.10%+2.36%
Wed 04 May 2022 19:00+1.49%+1.78%no-5.74%-23.58%+2.89%+2.84%-1.23%
Wed 16 Mar 2022 18:00-1.17%+1.62%yes+0.98%+4.34%-1.15%+2.28%+0.48%
Wed 26 Jan 2022 19:00-1.05%-3.82%no-4.64%-1.28%-1.66%-6.72%-0.97%
Wed 15 Dec 2021 19:00+1.76%+2.04%no+0.36%+1.60%+4.27%+5.13%+0.84%
Wed 03 Nov 2021 18:00+1.08%+1.07%no-2.59%+9.77%+2.31%+1.26%-1.21%
Wed 22 Sep 2021 19:00+0.06%+0.37%no+4.08%-4.50%-0.14%+0.66%+0.56%
Wed 28 Jul 2021 19:00+4.00%+3.09%no+1.82%+1.23%+2.70%+1.94%+0.59%
Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:00-1.14%-1.04%no-3.92%-14.24%-0.21%-0.55%-1.37%
Wed 28 Apr 2021 19:00+0.21%+0.01%no-3.92%+4.45%+0.43%+1.64%+0.28%
Wed 17 Mar 2021 18:00+3.70%+5.16%no+6.54%+1.00%+1.82%+1.87%+0.36%
Wed 27 Jan 2021 19:00+3.48%+2.86%no+9.97%+25.09%+3.60%+2.34%+0.28%
Wed 16 Dec 2020 19:00+0.76%+3.78%no+12.93%+14.50%+0.73%+2.59%+0.79%
Thu 05 Nov 2020 19:00+1.31%+4.14%no+3.44%+7.77%+0.76%+1.90%+0.35%
Wed 16 Sep 2020 19:00-0.25%-0.21%no-1.55%-5.27%-0.87%-0.75%-0.19%
Wed 29 Jul 2020 19:00+0.33%+1.07%no-1.16%+4.50%+0.34%+0.81%+0.47%
Wed 10 Jun 2020 19:00+0.63%+0.81%no-4.12%-3.89%+0.89%+1.62%-0.96%
Wed 29 Apr 2020 19:00-0.92%+1.70%yes-1.70%+6.49%-0.28%-0.06%+1.39%
Mon 23 Mar 2020 12:00unscheduled+8.06%+6.35%no+15.17%+8.83%+8.06%+5.19%-2.14%
Sun 15 Mar 2020 21:00unscheduled+14.71%+1.08%no-5.31%+14.67%+11.05%+0.56%-1.03%
Tue 03 Mar 2020 15:00unscheduled+0.06%-0.27%yes-0.27%-8.04%-0.19%-0.92%+0.28%
Wed 29 Jan 2020 19:00+0.20%-0.25%yes+1.36%+3.47%+0.28%-0.19%+0.72%
Wed 11 Dec 2019 19:00+0.13%+0.14%no+0.27%-4.37%-0.25%+0.07%-0.33%
Wed 30 Oct 2019 18:00+0.51%+0.35%no+1.57%+2.03%+0.77%-0.02%+0.52%
Wed 18 Sep 2019 19:00-0.06%+0.11%yes-1.48%-17.76%-0.40%-0.56%+0.02%
Wed 31 Jul 2019 19:00-0.48%+0.18%yes+0.72%+17.39%-0.31%-0.07%-0.61%
Wed 19 Jun 2019 19:00-0.29%+1.08%yes+2.42%+46.96%-0.33%+0.49%+0.59%
Wed 01 May 2019 19:00-0.73%-0.96%no+0.77%+9.82%-0.91%-1.83%-0.45%
Wed 20 Mar 2019 18:00+0.22%+0.23%no-0.92%+0.29%+0.14%+0.51%-0.89%
Wed 30 Jan 2019 19:00-0.17%-0.05%no-1.19%-2.20%-0.48%-0.40%+0.56%
Wed 19 Dec 2018 19:00-0.66%-2.14%no+6.75%-0.92%-1.89%-4.32%-0.15%
Thu 08 Nov 2018 19:00-0.03%-0.09%no-1.30%-14.07%+0.36%-0.17%-1.05%
Wed 26 Sep 2018 19:00-0.21%-0.83%no-0.30%-0.91%-0.75%-2.28%-0.59%
Wed 01 Aug 2018 19:00-0.03%-0.83%no-0.41%-17.21%-0.60%-2.42%-0.65%
Wed 13 Jun 2018 19:00+0.10%-0.66%yes+4.57%+6.78%+0.34%-1.22%-0.34%
Wed 02 May 2018 19:00-0.06%+1.22%yes+6.32%+2.15%+0.08%+1.40%-0.30%
Wed 21 Mar 2018 18:00+0.43%+0.63%no-2.17%-10.52%+0.86%+1.24%+0.24%
Wed 31 Jan 2018 19:00+0.24%+0.72%no-10.07%-17.40%-0.48%-0.10%+0.40%
Wed 13 Dec 2017 19:00+1.70%+2.10%no+2.20%+5.47%+4.03%+3.00%+0.56%
Wed 01 Nov 2017 18:00-0.30%-0.45%no+5.78%+17.02%+0.08%-0.16%-1.43%
Wed 20 Sep 2017 19:00+0.02%-1.29%yes-7.71%+2.27%+0.17%-0.76%+0.09%
Wed 26 Jul 2017 19:00-0.08%-0.34%no+4.33%+9.42%––+0.13%
Wed 14 Jun 2017 19:00+0.24%-4.25%yes-13.58%+4.95%––-0.31%
Wed 03 May 2017 19:00+0.14%+0.59%no+7.49%+18.77%––-0.05%
Wed 15 Mar 2017 18:00-0.13%+0.13%yes-2.33%-18.75%––+1.21%
Wed 01 Feb 2017 19:00+0.10%+0.82%no+2.63%+8.49%––-0.81%

FAQ

What is the FOMC impact on the Bitcoin price?

Across 77 scheduled FOMC decision releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.02% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.85%, about 2.0× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 22% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 49% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.

What time is it released in the UK?

Statement page: 'For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT'. The most recent release was at Wed 16 Sep 2026 19:00 UK time.